Sunday, 20 May 2012 01:14

Global warming will increase by 54 percent the number of conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa and lead until 393 more people dead, according to a recent study by researchers from several U.S. universities. The scientists analyzed historical data from 1981 to 2002 and introduced in models for calculating the indicators of the importance of agricultural crops, since 90 percent of their population employed in agriculture.

"The rise in temperature by one degree Celsius causes an increase of 4.5 percent in the number of civil conflicts in the same year and 0.9 percent next year," says the study, published in the journal Proceeding of the National Academy of Science. All mathematical models used by scientists involved - the universities of Harvard, Cambridge, Stanford, California and New York - show a correlation between temperature rise and rise of civil wars.

"In combination with models of projected climate change in the future, the historical response to temperature increases suggest an increase of 54 percent of the number of armed conflicts in 2030," the report said. Another conclusion is that the number of deaths in conflicts boosted by these changes is higher than in wars motivated by other factors. The calculations indicate an additional number of 393 people dead by 2030.

"If climate change is felt in particular by the conflicts that have effects on crop yields, then, given the importance of agriculture for African countries, their governments and donors can contribute to the reduction of risks of conflict especially helping agricultural sector to cope with increases in temperature, argue the authors of the study. For example, suggest "develop varieties of agricultural products more adapted to temperature changes and help these countries build infrastructure to allow irrigation.

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Sunday, 20 May 2012 01:14

The reluctant vote in favour of further European integration by the Irish this weekend may usher Tony Blair into a new role as titular head of the European Union — despite most of Europe being reluctant to have him. The former prime minister is the leading candidate to become the European Union president for a want of alternatives rather than any enthusiasm. With the Irish having finally ratified the Lisbon treaty, all that remains is for the Czech and Polish presidents to sign it and authorise the creation of two new key posts in the EU hierarchy: the president of the European council of heads of state, popularly known as the EU president, and that of high representative for common foreign and security policy, in effect a foreign minister.

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